Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
